Thinking About Waiting for Lower Mortgage Rates? Read This First.

Imagine waiting a year to buy a home,only to find mortgage rates haven’t changed much.That may sound frustrating.But it’s a real possibility.

A lot of people are putting their plans on hold because they believe much lower mortgage rates are right around the corner. But, based on today’s forecasts, that may not happen. And you should know that before you decide what to do.

Let’s look at why experts don’t expect a dramatic drop in rates – and the options that could help you buy anyway. Because even if rates don’t fall, you can still move. Here’s how.

1. Mortgage Rates Aren’t Expected To Fall in a Meaningful Way

If you’re waiting for rates to fall, you’re not alone. A recent survey from Clever-Best Interest found 42% of people believe mortgage rates will drop below 5% this year.

The challenge is, that’s not what the experts who study mortgage rates every day are expecting.

Forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and Wells Fargo all show mortgage rates staying relatively steady in the low-to-mid 6% range through at least mid-2027 (see graph below):

Infographic titled "Mortgage Rates Aren’t Expected To Drop Dramatically." A line chart compares the actual 30-year fixed mortgage rate from 2024 through the second quarter of 2026 with forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and Wells Fargo through mid-2027. Actual mortgage rates fluctuated between 6.1% and 7.0%, peaking at 7.0% in the second quarter of 2024 before easing to 6.1% in early 2026 and rising slightly to 6.4% by the second quarter of 2026. Forecasts show only modest changes over the following year, with Wells Fargo projecting rates near 6.2%, Fannie Mae around 6.3%, and the MBA around 6.5% by the second quarter of 2027. The chart indicates that while rates may gradually improve, major forecasters do not expect a dramatic decline in mortgage rates over the next year. Sources: Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, MBA, and Wells Fargo.

Why? Rates are influenced by inflation, the overall economy, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, global events, and a lot of other moving pieces. And right now, those factors simply aren’t pointing toward the kind of dramatic rate drop many buyers are waiting for.

Could rates move a little? Of course. But if you’re holding out for a bigger drop, today’s forecasts suggest you may be waiting a lot longer than you expect.

2. Inflation Is Still Elevated – And That’s Working Against Lower Rates

One reason experts aren’t expecting rates to fall much? Inflation. Generally speaking, high inflation is the enemy of lower mortgage rates.

And after a period of relative stability from mid 2023 to late 2025, recent data shows inflation has actually been trending higher lately (see graph below):

Infographic titled "After a Few Years of Stability, Inflation Is Back on the Rise." A bar chart displays the year-over-year percentage change in the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, from January 2020 through May 2026. Inflation remained near 1% to 2% during 2020, accelerated sharply throughout 2021 and 2022, and peaked above 5% in early 2022. It then gradually declined through 2023, settling in the mid-2% range during much of 2024 and early 2025. More recent data shows inflation beginning to trend upward again, climbing from around 2.7% to approximately 3.3% by May 2026, highlighted by an upward arrow. The chart suggests inflationary pressures have reemerged after a period of relative stability, a factor that can influence interest rates and mortgage rate expectations. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Investing.com.

In other words, one of the biggest ingredients needed for much lower mortgage rates simply isn’t in place today. That helps explain why experts aren’t forecasting the kind of meaningful decline so many buyers are hoping for.

3. Today’s Rates Aren’t High, They’re “Normal”

And this may be the biggest mindset shift of all. The reality is, while today’s rates may feel high compared to a few years ago, they’re not high. They’re normal.

Historically, mortgage rates have spent the majority of their time somewhere between about 5% and 10%. And data from Freddie Mac shows we’re actually well in that range today. It just feels high because we all remember the ultra-low rates homeowners got during the pandemic (see graph below):

Infographic titled "Today’s Mortgage Rates Are Historically 'Normal.'" A long-term line chart tracks the weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate from 1971 through 2026. The chart divides mortgage rate history into three color-coded ranges: historically low rates (below 5%), which occurred roughly 20% of the time; historically normal rates (5%–10%), representing about 60% of the time; and historically high rates (above 10%), also occurring about 20% of the time. Mortgage rates peaked near 18% in the early 1980s, gradually declined over the following decades, reached historic lows below 3% during 2020–2021, and then increased sharply beginning in 2022. The most recent data shows mortgage rates around the mid-6% range, placing today's rates within the historical "normal" range rather than at historically high levels. Source: Freddie Mac.

Now, this doesn’t suddenly make a 6% mortgage feel exciting. But it does remind us that waiting for super low rates again may not be a realistic strategy.

So… What Should You Do Instead?

None of this is meant to convince you that you have to buy today. You don’t. But if you need to because something in your life’s changed, there are still ways to find better affordability without waiting for mortgage rates to fall.

Check out newly built homes. Many builders are offering incentives to attract buyers, including price cuts, potentially lower rates, free upgrades, and more.
Ask about an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). If you don’t plan to stay in the home long-term, an ARM may offer a lower initial interest rate than a traditional 30-year fixed mortgage. It’s not the right choice for everyone, but it’s worth asking a lender if it fits your plans.
Look into mortgage rate buydowns. This is when you pay upfront to reduce your mortgage rate so you can get for a lower monthly payment without waiting for rates to fall.
Find out about assumable mortgages. An assumable mortgage allows you to take over the seller’s existing loan, including its lower mortgage rate.

The important thing is you shouldn’t assume waiting is your only option.

Talk with your real estate agent and lender about whether one of these strategies could be a good fit for you.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been putting your home search on hold because you’re convinced mortgage rates will be much lower soon, it may be worth taking another look at that strategy.

Let’s connect so you have an expert who can at least walk you through your options and decide whether waiting really puts you in a better position – or just keeps you on the sidelines a little longer.

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